Remote Sensing¶
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Center-fixing of tropical cyclones using uncertainty-aware deep learning applied to high-temporal-resolution geostationary satellite imagery¶
Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/future estimates of...Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/future estimates of track, intensity, and structure. Despite a recent increase in automated center-fixing methods, only one such method (ARCHER-2) is operational, and its best performance is achieved when using microwave or scatterometer data, which are often unavailable. We develop a deep-learning algorithm called GeoCenter; besides a few scalars in the operational Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System, it relies only on geostationary infrared (IR) satellite imagery, which is available for all TC basins at high frequency (10 min) and low latency (< 10 min) during both day and night. GeoCenter ingests an animation (time series) of IR images, including 9 channels at lag times up to 4 hours. The animation is centered at a "first guess" location, offset from the true TC-center location by 48 km on average and sometimes > 100 km; GeoCenter is tasked with correcting this offset. On an independent testing dataset, GeoCenter achieves a mean/median/RMS (root mean square) error of 26.6/22.2/32.4 km for all systems, 24.7/20.8/30.0 km for tropical systems, and 14.6/12.5/17.3 km for category-2--5 hurricanes. These values are similar to ARCHER-2 errors with microwave or scatterometer data, and better than ARCHER-2 errors when only IR data are available. GeoCenter also performs skillful uncertainty quantification, producing a well calibrated ensemble of 150 TC-center locations. Furthermore, all predictors used by GeoCenter are available in real time, which would make GeoCenter easy to implement operationally every 10 min. more
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Developing a Thailand solar irradiance map using Himawari-8 satellite imageries and deep learning models¶
This paper presents an online platform showing Thailand solar irradiance map every 30 minutes, available at https://www.cusolarforecast.com. The methodology for estimating global horizontal...This paper presents an online platform showing Thailand solar irradiance map every 30 minutes, available at https://www.cusolarforecast.com. The methodology for estimating global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across Thailand relies on cloud index extracted from Himawari-8 satellite imagery, Ineichen clear-sky model with locally-tuned Linke turbidity, and machine learning models. The methods take clear-sky irradiance, cloud index, re-analyzed GHI and temperature data from the MERRA-2 database, and date-time as inputs for GHI estimation models, including LightGBM, LSTM, Informer, and Transformer. These are benchmarked with the estimate from a commercial service X by evaluation of 15-minute ground GHI data from 53 ground stations over 1.5 years during 2022-2023. The results show that the four models exhibit comparable overall MAE performance to the service X. The best model is LightGBM with an overall MAE of 78.58 W/sqm and RMSE of 118.97 W/sqm, while the service X achieves the lowest MAE, RMSE, and MBE in cloudy condition. Obtaining re-analyzed MERRA-2 data for the whole Thailand region is not economically feasible for deployment. When removing these features, the Informer model has a winning performance in MAE of 78.67 W/sqm. The obtained performance aligns with existing literature by taking the climate zone and time granularity of data into consideration. As the map shows an estimate of GHI over 93,000 grids with a frequent update, the paper also describes a computational framework for displaying the entire map. It tests the runtime performance of deep learning models in the GHI estimation process. more
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Surface solar radiation: AI satellite retrieval can outperform Heliosat and generalizes well to other climate zones¶
Accurate estimates of surface solar irradiance (SSI) are essential for solar resource assessments and solar energy forecasts in grid integration and building control applications. SSI estimates for...Accurate estimates of surface solar irradiance (SSI) are essential for solar resource assessments and solar energy forecasts in grid integration and building control applications. SSI estimates for spatially extended regions can be retrieved from geostationary satellites such as Meteosat. Traditional SSI satellite retrievals like Heliosat rely on physical radiative transfer modelling. We introduce the first machine-learning-based satellite retrieval for instantaneous SSI and demonstrate its capability to provide accurate and generalizable SSI estimates across Europe. Our deep learning retrieval provides near real-time SSI estimates based on data-driven emulation of Heliosat and fine-tuning on pyranometer networks. By including SSI from ground stations, our SSI retrieval model can outperform Heliosat accuracy and generalize well to regions with other climates and surface albedos in cloudy conditions (clear-sky index < 0.8). We also show that the SSI retrieved from Heliosat exhibits large biases in mountain regions, and that training and fine-tuning our retrieval models on SSI data from ground stations strongly reduces these biases, outperforming Heliosat. Furthermore, we quantify the relative importance of the Meteosat channels and other predictor variables like solar zenith angle for the accuracy of our deep learning SSI retrieval model in different cloud conditions. We find that in cloudy conditions multiple near-infrared and infrared channels enhance the performance. Our results can facilitate the development of more accurate satellite retrieval models of surface solar irradiance. more
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Estimating Atmospheric Variables from Digital Typhoon Satellite Images via Conditional Denoising Diffusion Models¶
This study explores the application of diffusion models in the field of typhoons, predicting multiple ERA5 meteorological variables simultaneously from Digital Typhoon satellite images. The focus of...This study explores the application of diffusion models in the field of typhoons, predicting multiple ERA5 meteorological variables simultaneously from Digital Typhoon satellite images. The focus of this study is taken to be Taiwan, an area very vulnerable to typhoons. By comparing the performance of Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probability Model (CDDPM) with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks (SENet), results suggest that the CDDPM performs best in generating accurate and realistic meteorological data. Specifically, CDDPM achieved a PSNR of 32.807, which is approximately 7.9% higher than CNN and 5.5% higher than SENet. Furthermore, CDDPM recorded an RMSE of 0.032, showing a 11.1% improvement over CNN and 8.6% improvement over SENet. A key application of this research can be for imputation purposes in missing meteorological datasets and generate additional high-quality meteorological data using satellite images. It is hoped that the results of this analysis will enable more robust and detailed forecasting, reducing the impact of severe weather events on vulnerable regions. Code accessible at https://github.com/TammyLing/Typhoon-forecasting. more
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An Atmospheric Correction Integrated LULC Segmentation Model for High-Resolution Satellite Imagery¶
The integration of fine-scale multispectral imagery with deep learning models has revolutionized land use and land cover (LULC) classification. However, the atmospheric effects present in...The integration of fine-scale multispectral imagery with deep learning models has revolutionized land use and land cover (LULC) classification. However, the atmospheric effects present in Top-of-Atmosphere sensor measured Digital Number values must be corrected to retrieve accurate Bottom-of-Atmosphere surface reflectance for reliable analysis. This study employs look-up-table-based radiative transfer simulations to estimate the atmospheric path reflectance and transmittance for atmospherically correcting high-resolution CARTOSAT-3 Multispectral (MX) imagery for several Indian cities. The corrected surface reflectance data were subsequently used in supervised and semi-supervised segmentation models, demonstrating stability in multi-class (buildings, roads, trees and water bodies) LULC segmentation accuracy, particularly in scenarios with sparsely labelled data. more
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A novel fusion of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 with climate data for crop phenology estimation using Machine Learning¶
Crop phenology describes the physiological development stages of crops from planting to harvest which is valuable information for decision makers to plan and adapt agricultural management strategies....Crop phenology describes the physiological development stages of crops from planting to harvest which is valuable information for decision makers to plan and adapt agricultural management strategies. In the era of big Earth observation data ubiquity, attempts have been made to accurately detect crop phenology using Remote Sensing (RS) and high resolution weather data. However, most studies have focused on large scale predictions of phenology or developed methods which are not adequate to help crop modeler communities on leveraging Sentinel-1 and Sentinal-2 data and fusing them with high resolution climate data, using a novel framework. For this, we trained a Machine Learning (ML) LightGBM model to predict 13 phenological stages for eight major crops across Germany at 20 m scale. Observed phonologies were taken from German national phenology network (German Meteorological Service; DWD) between 2017 and 2021. We proposed a thorough feature selection analysis to find the best combination of RS and climate data to detect phenological stages. At national scale, predicted phenology resulted in a reasonable precision of R2 > 0.43 and a low Mean Absolute Error of 6 days, averaged over all phenological stages and crops. The spatio-temporal analysis of the model predictions demonstrates its transferability across different spatial and temporal context of Germany. The results indicated that combining radar sensors with climate data yields a very promising performance for a multitude of practical applications. Moreover, these improvements are expected to be useful to generate highly valuable input for crop model calibrations and evaluations, facilitate informed agricultural decisions, and contribute to sustainable food production to address the increasing global food demand. more
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Cross-View Geolocalization and Disaster Mapping with Street-View and VHR Satellite Imagery: A Case Study of Hurricane IAN¶
Nature disasters play a key role in shaping human-urban infrastructure interactions. Effective and efficient response to natural disasters is essential for building resilience and a sustainable urban...Nature disasters play a key role in shaping human-urban infrastructure interactions. Effective and efficient response to natural disasters is essential for building resilience and a sustainable urban environment. Two types of information are usually the most necessary and difficult to gather in disaster response. The first information is about disaster damage perception, which shows how badly people think that urban infrastructure has been damaged. The second information is geolocation awareness, which means how people whereabouts are made available. In this paper, we proposed a novel disaster mapping framework, namely CVDisaster, aiming at simultaneously addressing geolocalization and damage perception estimation using cross-view Street-View Imagery (SVI) and Very High-Resolution satellite imagery. CVDisaster consists of two cross-view models, where CVDisaster-Geoloc refers to a cross-view geolocalization model based on a contrastive learning objective with a Siamese ConvNeXt image encoder, and CVDisaster-Est is a cross-view classification model based on a Couple Global Context Vision Transformer (CGCViT). Taking Hurricane IAN as a case study, we evaluate the CVDisaster framework by creating a novel cross-view dataset (CVIAN) and conducting extensive experiments. As a result, we show that CVDisaster can achieve highly competitive performance (over 80% for geolocalization and 75% for damage perception estimation) with even limited fine-tuning efforts, which largely motivates future cross-view models and applications within a broader GeoAI research community. The data and code are publicly available at: https://github.com/tum-bgd/CVDisaster. more
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Enhancing 3D Planetary Atmosphere Simulations with a Surrogate Radiative Transfer Model¶
This work introduces an approach to enhancing the computational efficiency of 3D atmospheric simulations by integrating a machine-learned surrogate model into the OASIS global circulation model...This work introduces an approach to enhancing the computational efficiency of 3D atmospheric simulations by integrating a machine-learned surrogate model into the OASIS global circulation model (GCM). Traditional GCMs, which are based on repeatedly numerically integrating physical equations governing atmospheric processes across a series of time-steps, are time-intensive, leading to compromises in spatial and temporal resolution of simulations. This research improves upon this limitation, enabling higher resolution simulations within practical timeframes. Speeding up 3D simulations holds significant implications in multiple domains. Firstly, it facilitates the integration of 3D models into exoplanet inference pipelines, allowing for robust characterisation of exoplanets from a previously unseen wealth of data anticipated from JWST and post-JWST instruments. Secondly, acceleration of 3D models will enable higher resolution atmospheric simulations of Earth and Solar System planets, enabling more detailed insights into their atmospheric physics and chemistry. Our method replaces the radiative transfer module in OASIS with a recurrent neural network-based model trained on simulation inputs and outputs. Radiative transfer is typically one of the slowest components of a GCM, thus providing the largest scope for overall model speed-up. The surrogate model was trained and tested on the specific test case of the Venusian atmosphere, to benchmark the utility of this approach in the case of non-terrestrial atmospheres. This approach yields promising results, with the surrogate-integrated GCM demonstrating above 99.0% accuracy and 147 factor GPU speed-up of the entire simulation compared to using the matched original GCM under Venus-like conditions. more
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A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach utilizing Multiband Satellite Data for Solar Irradiance Estimation¶
Solar irradiance is fundamental data crucial for analyses related to weather and climate. High-precision estimation models are necessary to create areal data for solar irradiance. In this study, we...Solar irradiance is fundamental data crucial for analyses related to weather and climate. High-precision estimation models are necessary to create areal data for solar irradiance. In this study, we developed a novel estimation model by utilizing machine learning and multiband data from meteorological satellite observations. Particularly under clear-sky and thin clouds, satellite observations can be influenced by surface reflections, which may lead to overfitting to ground observations. To make the model applicable at any location, we constructed the model incorporating prior information such as radiative transfer models and clear-sky probability, based on physical and meteorological knowledge. As a result, the estimation accuracy significantly improved at validation sites. more