Other¶
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The promising potential of vision language models for the generation of textual weather forecasts¶
Despite the promising capability of multimodal foundation models, their application to the generation of meteorological products and services remains nascent. To accelerate aspiration and adoption,...Despite the promising capability of multimodal foundation models, their application to the generation of meteorological products and services remains nascent. To accelerate aspiration and adoption, we explore the novel use of a vision language model for writing the iconic Shipping Forecast text directly from video-encoded gridded weather data. These early results demonstrate promising scalable technological opportunities for enhancing production efficiency and service innovation within the weather enterprise and beyond. more
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EWE: An Agentic Framework for Extreme Weather Analysis¶
Extreme weather events pose escalating risks to global society, underscoring the urgent need to unravel their underlying physical mechanisms. Yet the prevailing expert-driven, labor-intensive...Extreme weather events pose escalating risks to global society, underscoring the urgent need to unravel their underlying physical mechanisms. Yet the prevailing expert-driven, labor-intensive diagnostic paradigm has created a critical analytical bottleneck, stalling scientific progress. While AI for Earth Science has achieved notable advances in prediction, the equally essential challenge of automated diagnostic reasoning remains largely unexplored. We present the Extreme Weather Expert (EWE), the first intelligent agent framework dedicated to this task. EWE emulates expert workflows through knowledge-guided planning, closed-loop reasoning, and a domain-tailored meteorological toolkit. It autonomously produces and interprets multimodal visualizations from raw meteorological data, enabling comprehensive diagnostic analyses. To catalyze progress, we introduce the first benchmark for this emerging field, comprising a curated dataset of 103 high-impact events and a novel step-wise evaluation metric. EWE marks a step toward automated scientific discovery and offers the potential to democratize expertise and intellectual resources, particularly for developing nations vulnerable to extreme weather. more
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Causal Feature Selection for Weather-Driven Residential Load Forecasting¶
Weather is a dominant external driver of residential electricity demand, but adding many meteorological covariates can inflate model complexity and may even impair accuracy. Selecting appropriate...Weather is a dominant external driver of residential electricity demand, but adding many meteorological covariates can inflate model complexity and may even impair accuracy. Selecting appropriate exogenous features is non-trivial and calls for a principled selection framework, given the direct operational implications for day-to-day planning and reliability. This work investigates whether causal feature selection can retain the most informative weather drivers while improving parsimony and robustness for short-term load forecasting. We present a case study on Southern Ontario with two open-source datasets: (i) IESO hourly electricity consumption by Forward Sortation Areas; (ii) ERA5 weather reanalysis data. We compare different feature selection regimes (no feature selection, non-causal selection, PCMCI-causal selection) on city-level forecasting with three different time series forecasting models: GRU, TCN, PatchTST. In the feature analysis, non-causal selection prioritizes radiation and moisture variables that show correlational dependence, whereas PCMCI-causal selection emphasizes more direct thermal drivers and prunes the indirect covariates. We detail the evaluation pipeline and report diagnostics on prediction accuracy and extreme-weather robustness, positioning causal feature selection as a practical complement to modern forecasters when integrating weather into residential load forecasting. more
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Weather Maps as Tokens: Transformers for Renewable Energy Forecasting¶
Accurate renewable energy forecasting is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enabling grid decarbonization. However, current approaches fail to effectively integrate the rich spatial...Accurate renewable energy forecasting is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enabling grid decarbonization. However, current approaches fail to effectively integrate the rich spatial context of weather patterns with their temporal evolution. This work introduces a novel approach that treats weather maps as tokens in transformer sequences to predict renewable energy. Hourly weather maps are encoded as spatial tokens using a lightweight convolutional neural network, and then processed by a transformer to capture temporal dynamics across a 45-hour forecast horizon. Despite disadvantages in input initialization, evaluation against ENTSO-E operational forecasts shows a reduction in RMSE of about 60% and 20% for wind and solar respectively. A live dashboard showing daily forecasts is available at: https://www.sardiniaforecast.ifabfoundation.it. more
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A Deep Learning Density Shaping Model Predictive Gust Load Alleviation Control of a Compliant Wing Subjected to Atmospheric Turbulence¶
This study presents a novel deep learning approach aimed at enhancing stochastic Gust Load Alleviation (GLA) specifically for compliant wings. The approach incorporates the concept of smooth wing...This study presents a novel deep learning approach aimed at enhancing stochastic Gust Load Alleviation (GLA) specifically for compliant wings. The approach incorporates the concept of smooth wing camber variation, where the camber of the wing's chord is actively adjusted during flight using a control signal to achieve the desired aerodynamic loading. The proposed method employs a deep learning-based model predictive controller designed for probability density shaping. This controller effectively solves the probability density evolution equation through a custom Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) and utilizes Automatic Differentiation for Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization. Comprehensive numerical simulations were conducted on a compliant wing (CW) model, evaluating performance of the proposed approach against stochastic gust profiles. The evaluation involved stochastic aerodynamic loads generated from Band-Limited White Noise (BLWN) and Dryden gust models. The evaluation were conducted for two distinct Compliant Chord Fractions (CCF). The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed probability density shaping model predictive control in alleviating stochastic gust load and reducing wing tip deflection. more
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MMWSTM-ADRAN+: A Novel Hybrid Deep Learning Architecture for Enhanced Climate Time Series Forecasting and Extreme Event Prediction¶
Accurate short-range prediction of extreme air temperature events remains a fundamental challenge in operational climate-risk management. We present Multi-Modal Weather State Transition Model with...Accurate short-range prediction of extreme air temperature events remains a fundamental challenge in operational climate-risk management. We present Multi-Modal Weather State Transition Model with Anomaly-Driven Recurrent Attention Network Plus (MMWSTM-ADRAN+), a dual-stream deep learning architecture that couples a regime-aware dynamics model with an anomaly-focused attention mechanism to forecast daily maximum temperature and its extremes. The first stream, MMWSTM, combines bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) units with a learnable Markov state transition matrix to capture synoptic-scale weather regime changes. The second stream, ADRAN, integrates bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRUs), multi-head self-attention, and a novel anomaly amplification layer to enhance sensitivity to low-probability signals. A lightweight attentive fusion gate adaptively determines the contribution of each stream to the final prediction. Model optimization employs a custom ExtremeWeatherLoss function that up-weights errors on the upper 5% and lower 5% of the temperature distribution, and a time-series data augmentation suite (jittering, scaling, time/magnitude warping) that effectively quadruples the training data more
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SynWeather: Weather Observation Data Synthesis across Multiple Regions and Variables via a General Diffusion Transformer¶
With the advancement of meteorological instruments, abundant data has become available. Current approaches are typically focus on single-variable, single-region tasks and primarily rely on...With the advancement of meteorological instruments, abundant data has become available. Current approaches are typically focus on single-variable, single-region tasks and primarily rely on deterministic modeling. This limits unified synthesis across variables and regions, overlooks cross-variable complementarity and often leads to over-smoothed results. To address above challenges, we introduce SynWeather, the first dataset designed for Unified Multi-region and Multi-variable Weather Observation Data Synthesis. SynWeather covers four representative regions: the Continental United States, Europe, East Asia, and Tropical Cyclone regions, as well as provides high-resolution observations of key weather variables, including Composite Radar Reflectivity, Hourly Precipitation, Visible Light, and Microwave Brightness Temperature. In addition, we introduce SynWeatherDiff, a general and probabilistic weather synthesis model built upon the Diffusion Transformer framework to address the over-smoothed problem. Experiments on the SynWeather dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our network compared with both task-specific and general models. more
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Topography, climate, land cover, and biodiversity: Explaining endemic richness and management implications on a Mediterranean island¶
Island endemism is shaped by complex interactions among environmental, ecological, and evolutionary factors, yet the relative contributions of topography, climate, and land cover remain incompletely...Island endemism is shaped by complex interactions among environmental, ecological, and evolutionary factors, yet the relative contributions of topography, climate, and land cover remain incompletely quantified. We investigated the drivers of endemic plant richness across Crete, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot, using spatially explicit data on species distributions, topographic complexity, climatic variability, land cover, and soil characteristics. Artificial Neural Network models, a machine learning tool, were employed to assess the relative importance of these predictors and to identify hotspots of endemism. We found that total species richness, elevation range, and climatic variability were the strongest predictors of endemic richness, reflecting the role of biodiversity, topographic heterogeneity, and climatic gradients in generating diverse habitats and micro-refugia that promote speciation and buffer extinction risk. Endemic hotspots only partially overlapped with areas of high total species richness, indicating that total species richness was the optimal from the ones examined, yet an imperfect surrogate. These environmentally heterogeneous areas also provide critical ecosystem services, including soil stabilization, pollination, and cultural value, which are increasingly threatened by tourism, renewable energy development, land-use change, and climate impacts. Our findings underscore the importance of prioritizing mountainous and climatically variable regions in conservation planning, integrating ecosystem service considerations, and accounting for within-island spatial heterogeneity. By explicitly linking the environmental drivers of endemism to both biodiversity patterns and ecosystem function, this study provides a framework for evidence-based conservation planning in Crete and other Mediterranean islands with similar geological and biogeographic contexts. more
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Tipping Points and Cascading Transitions: Methods, Principles, and Evidences¶
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity...This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts of tipping elements, large-scale subsystems like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Amazon rainforest, and classifies tipping mechanisms into bifurcation-, noise-, and rate-induced types. The article critically evaluates methods for detecting early-warning signals, particularly those based on critical slowing down, while also acknowledging their limitations and the promise of non-conventional indicators. Furthermore, we explore the significant risk of cascading failures between interacting tipping elements, often modeled using conceptual network models. This shows that such interactions can substantially increase systemic risk under global warming. The review concludes by outlining key challenges related to data limitations and methodological robustness, and emphasizes the promising role of artificial intelligence and complex network science in advancing prediction and risk assessment of Earth system tipping dynamics. more
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An Efficient and Generalizable Transfer Learning Method for Weather Condition Detection on Ground Terminals¶
The increasing adoption of satellite Internet with low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites in mega-constellations allows ubiquitous connectivity to rural and remote areas. However, weather events have a...The increasing adoption of satellite Internet with low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites in mega-constellations allows ubiquitous connectivity to rural and remote areas. However, weather events have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of satellite Internet. Adverse weather events such as snow and rain can disturb the performance and operations of satellite Internet's essential ground terminal components, such as satellite antennas, significantly disrupting the space-ground link conditions between LEO satellites and ground stations. This challenge calls for not only region-based weather forecasts but also fine-grained detection capability on ground terminal components of fine-grained weather conditions. Such a capability can assist in fault diagnostics and mitigation for reliable satellite Internet, but its solutions are lacking, not to mention the effectiveness and generalization that are essential in real-world deployments. This paper discusses an efficient transfer learning (TL) method that can enable a ground component to locally detect representative weather-related conditions. The proposed method can detect snow, wet, and other conditions resulting from adverse and typical weather events and shows superior performance compared to the typical deep learning methods, such as YOLOv7, YOLOv9, Faster R-CNN, and R-YOLO. Our TL method also shows the advantage of being generalizable to various scenarios. more
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Physiologically Active Vegetation Reverses Its Cooling Effect in Humid Urban Climates¶
Efforts to green cities for cooling are succeeding unevenly because the same vegetation that cools surfaces can also intensify how hot the air feels. Previous studies have identified humid heat as a...Efforts to green cities for cooling are succeeding unevenly because the same vegetation that cools surfaces can also intensify how hot the air feels. Previous studies have identified humid heat as a growing urban hazard, yet how physiologically active vegetation governs this trade-off between cooling and moisture accumulation remains poorly understood, leaving mitigation policy and design largely unguided. Here we quantify how vegetation structure and function influence the Heat Index (HI), a combined measure of temperature and humidity in 138 Indian cities spanning tropical savanna, semi-arid steppe, and humid subtropical climates, and across dense urban cores and semi-urban rings. Using an extreme-aware, one kilometre reconstruction of HI and an interpretable machine-learning framework that integrates SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Accumulated Local Effects (ALE), we isolate vegetation-climate interactions. Cooling generally strengthens for EVI >= 0.4 and LAI >= 0.05, but joint-high regimes begin to reverse toward warming when EVI >= 0.5, LAI >= 0.2, and fPAR >= 0.5,with an earlier onset for fPAR >= 0.25 in humid, dense cores. In such environments, highly physiologically active vegetation elevates near-surface humidity faster than it removes heat, reversing its cooling effect and amplifying perceived heat stress. These findings establish the climatic limits of vegetation-driven cooling and provide quantitative thresholds for climate-specific greening strategies that promote equitable and heat-resilient cities. more
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A Hierarchical Deep Learning Model for Predicting Pedestrian-Level Urban Winds¶
Deep learning-based surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for predicting urban wind flow. However,...Deep learning-based surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for predicting urban wind flow. However, conventional approaches usually only yield low-frequency predictions (essentially averaging values from proximate pixels), missing critical high-frequency details such as sharp gradients and peak wind speeds. This study proposes a hierarchical approach for accurately predicting pedestrian-level urban winds, which adopts a two-stage predictor-refiner framework. In the first stage, a U-Net architecture generates a baseline prediction from urban geometry. In the second stage, a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) refines this baseline by restoring the missing high-frequency content. The cGAN's generator incorporates a multi-scale architecture with stepwise kernel sizes, enabling simultaneous learning of global flow structures and fine-grained local features. Trained and validated on the UrbanTALES dataset with comprehensive urban configurations, the proposed hierarchical framework significantly outperforms the baseline predictor. With a marked qualitative improvement in resolving high-speed wind jets and complex turbulent wakes as well as wind statistics, the results yield quantitative enhancement in prediction accuracy (e.g., RMSE reduced by 76% for the training set and 60% for the validation set). This work presents an effective and robust methodology for enhancing the prediction fidelity of surrogate models in urban planning, pedestrian comfort assessment, and wind safety analysis. The proposed model will be integrated into an interactive web platform as Feilian Version 2. more
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Predictability of Storms in an Idealized Climate Revealed by Machine Learning¶
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict...The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the intensity growth and trajectory of over 200,000 storms simulated in a 200-year aquaplanet GCM. This idealized framework provides a controlled climate background for isolating factors that govern predictability. Results show that storm intensity is less predictable than trajectory. Strong baroclinicity accelerates storm intensification and reduces its predictability, consistent with theory. Crucially, enhanced jet meanders further degrade forecast skill, revealing a synoptic source of uncertainty. Using sensitivity maps from explainable AI, we find that the error growth rate is nearly doubled by the more meandering structure. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning for advancing understanding of predictability and its governing mechanisms. more
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Automated Supervised Identification of Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs)¶
Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) are bursts of high-energy particle fluxes detected at Earth's surface, linked to the Relativistic Runaway Electron Avalanche (RREA) mechanism within...Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) are bursts of high-energy particle fluxes detected at Earth's surface, linked to the Relativistic Runaway Electron Avalanche (RREA) mechanism within thunderclouds. Accurate detection of TGEs is vital for advancing atmospheric physics and radiation safety, but event selection methods heavily rely on expert-defined thresholds. In this study, we use an automated supervised classification approach on a newly curated dataset of 2024 events from the Aragats Space Environment Center (ASEC). By combining a Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network (TabPFN) with SHAP-based interpretability, we attain 94.79% classification accuracy with 96% precision for TGEs. The analysis reveals data-driven thresholds for particle flux increases and environmental parameters that closely match the empirically established criteria used over the last 15 years. Our results demonstrate that modest but concurrent increases across multiple particle detectors, along with strong near-surface electric fields, are reliable indicators of TGEs. The framework we propose offers a scalable method for automated, interpretable TGE detection, with potential uses in real-time radiation hazard monitoring and multi-site atmospheric research. more
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Hazard-Responsive Digital Twin for Climate-Driven Urban Resilience and Equity¶
Compounding climate hazards, such as wildfire-induced outages and urban heatwaves, challenge the stability and equity of cities. We present a Hazard-Responsive Digital Twin (H-RDT) that combines...Compounding climate hazards, such as wildfire-induced outages and urban heatwaves, challenge the stability and equity of cities. We present a Hazard-Responsive Digital Twin (H-RDT) that combines physics-informed neural network modeling, multimodal data fusion, and equity-aware risk analytics for urban-scale response. In a synthetic district with diverse building archetypes and populations, a simulated wildfire-outage-heatwave cascade shows that H-RDT maintains stable indoor temperature predictions (approximately 31 to 33 C) under partial sensor loss, reproducing outage-driven surges and recovery. The reinforcement learning based fusion module adaptively reweights IoT, UAV, and satellite inputs to sustain spatiotemporal coverage, while the equity-adjusted mapping isolates high-vulnerability clusters (schools, clinics, low-income housing). Prospective interventions, such as preemptive cooling-center activation and microgrid sharing, reduce population-weighted thermal risk by 11 to 13 percent, shrink the 95th-percentile (tail) risk by 7 to 17 percent, and cut overheating hours by up to 9 percent. Beyond the synthetic demonstration, the framework establishes a transferable foundation for real-city implementation, linking physical hazard modeling with social equity and decision intelligence. The H-RDT advances digital urban resilience toward adaptive, learning-based, and equity-centered decision support for climate adaptation. more
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Geographic Transferability of Machine Learning Models for Short-Term Airport Fog Forecasting¶
Short-term forecasting of airport fog (visibility < 1.0 km) presents challenges in geographic generalization because many machine learning models rely on location-specific features and fail to...Short-term forecasting of airport fog (visibility < 1.0 km) presents challenges in geographic generalization because many machine learning models rely on location-specific features and fail to transfer across sites. This study investigates whether fundamental thermodynamic and radiative processes can be encoded in a coordinate-free (location-independent) feature set to enable geographic transferability. A gradient boosting classifier (XGBoost) trained on Santiago, Chile (SCEL, 33S) data from 2002-2009 was evaluated on a 2010-2012 holdout set and under strict zero-shot tests at Puerto Montt (SCTE), San Francisco (KSFO), and London (EGLL). The model achieved AUC values of 0.923-0.947 across distances up to 11,650 km and different fog regimes (radiative, advective, marine). Consistent SHAP feature rankings show that visibility persistence, solar angle, and thermal gradients dominate predictions, suggesting the model learned transferable physical relationships rather than site-specific patterns. Results suggest that physics-informed, coordinate-free feature engineering can yield geographically transferable atmospheric forecasting tools. more
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A Climate-Aware Deep Learning Framework for Generalizable Epidemic Forecasting¶
Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for...Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for time-series forecasting presents an enticing avenue to enhance outbreak forecasting. Though the COVID-19 outbreak demonstrated the value of applying ML models to predict epidemic profiles, using ML models to forecast endemic diseases remains underexplored. In this work, we present ForecastNet-XCL (an ensemble model based on XGBoost+CNN+BiLSTM), a deep learning hybrid framework designed to addresses this gap by creating accurate multi-week RSV forecasts up to 100 weeks in advance based on climate and temporal data, without access to real-time surveillance on RSV. The framework combines high-resolution feature learning with long-range temporal dependency capturing mechanisms, bolstered by an autoregressive module trained on climate-controlled lagged relations. Stochastic inference returns probabilistic intervals to inform decision-making. Evaluated across 34 U.S. states, ForecastNet-XCL reliably outperformed statistical baselines, individual neural nets, and conventional ensemble methods in both within- and cross-state scenarios, sustaining accuracy over extended forecast horizons. Training on climatologically diverse datasets enhanced generalization furthermore, particularly in locations having irregular or biennial RSV patterns. ForecastNet-XCL's efficiency, performance, and uncertainty-aware design make it a deployable early-warning tool amid escalating climate pressures and constrained surveillance resources. more
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Optical turbulence forecast for ground-based astronomy and free-space optical communication¶
Forecasting optical turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere has been an ambitious challenge for the astronomical scientific community for several decades. While earlier research primarily focused on...Forecasting optical turbulence in the Earth's atmosphere has been an ambitious challenge for the astronomical scientific community for several decades. While earlier research primarily focused on whether it was possible to predict optical turbulence and its vertical distribution, current efforts are more concentrated on the accuracy achievable at different timescales, the efficiency of various forecasting methods and the contributions of new statistical approaches, such as auto-regression and machine learning to this field. In this contribution, I will present the state of the art of the research conducted by our group, positioned within the international research scenery. Most of our past activity has been primarily focused on ground-based astronomy but recent advancements in space research opened new opportunities for applications in the free-space optical communication. more
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From Binary to Bilingual: How the National Weather Service is Using Artificial Intelligence to Develop a Comprehensive Translation Program¶
To advance a Weather-Ready Nation, the National Weather Service (NWS) is developing a systematic translation program to better serve the 68.8 million people in the U.S. who do not speak English at...To advance a Weather-Ready Nation, the National Weather Service (NWS) is developing a systematic translation program to better serve the 68.8 million people in the U.S. who do not speak English at home. This article outlines the foundation of an automated translation tool for NWS products, powered by artificial intelligence. The NWS has partnered with LILT, whose patented training process enables large language models (LLMs) to adapt neural machine translation (NMT) tools for weather terminology and messaging. Designed for scalability across Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers, the system is currently being developed in Spanish, Simplified Chinese, Vietnamese, and other widely spoken non-English languages. Rooted in best practices for multilingual risk communication, the system provides accurate, timely, and culturally relevant translations, significantly reducing manual translation time and easing operational workloads across the NWS. To guide the distribution of these products, GIS mapping was used to identify language needs across different NWS regions, helping prioritize resources for the communities that need them most. We also integrated ethical AI practices throughout the program's design, ensuring that transparency, fairness, and human oversight guide how automated translations are created, evaluated, and shared with the public. This work has culminated into a website featuring experimental multilingual NWS products, including translated warnings, 7-day forecasts, and educational campaigns, bringing the country one step closer to a national warning system that reaches all Americans. more
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Road Surface Condition Detection with Machine Learning using New York State Department of Transportation Camera Images and Weather Forecast Data¶
The New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) has a network of roadside traffic cameras that are used by both the NYSDOT and the public to observe road conditions. The NYSDOT evaluates...The New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) has a network of roadside traffic cameras that are used by both the NYSDOT and the public to observe road conditions. The NYSDOT evaluates road conditions by driving on roads and observing live cameras, tasks which are labor-intensive but necessary for making critical operational decisions during winter weather events. However, machine learning models can provide additional support for the NYSDOT by automatically classifying current road conditions across the state. In this study, convolutional neural networks and random forests are trained on camera images and weather data to predict road surface conditions. Models are trained on a hand-labeled dataset of ~22,000 camera images, each classified by human labelers into one of six road surface conditions: severe snow, snow, wet, dry, poor visibility, or obstructed. Model generalizability is prioritized to meet the operational needs of the NYSDOT decision makers, and the weather-related road surface condition model in this study achieves an accuracy of 81.5% on completely unseen cameras. more
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Assessment of deep learning models integrated with weather and environmental variables for wildfire spread prediction and a case study of the 2023 Maui fires¶
Predicting the spread of wildfires is essential for effective fire management and risk assessment. With the fast advancements of artificial intelligence (AI), various deep learning models have been...Predicting the spread of wildfires is essential for effective fire management and risk assessment. With the fast advancements of artificial intelligence (AI), various deep learning models have been developed and utilized for wildfire spread prediction. However, there is limited understanding of the advantages and limitations of these models, and it is also unclear how deep learning-based fire spread models can be compared with existing non-AI fire models. In this work, we assess the ability of five typical deep learning models integrated with weather and environmental variables for wildfire spread prediction based on over ten years of wildfire data in the state of Hawaii. We further use the 2023 Maui fires as a case study to compare the best deep learning models with a widely-used fire spread model, FARSITE. The results show that two deep learning models, i.e., ConvLSTM and ConvLSTM with attention, perform the best among the five tested AI models. FARSITE shows higher precision, lower recall, and higher F1-score than the best AI models, while the AI models offer higher flexibility for the input data. By integrating AI models with an explainable AI method, we further identify important weather and environmental factors associated with the 2023 Maui wildfires. more
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BoreaRL: A Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning Environment for Climate-Adaptive Boreal Forest Management¶
Boreal forests store 30-40% of terrestrial carbon, much in climate-vulnerable permafrost soils, making their management critical for climate mitigation. However, optimizing forest management for both...Boreal forests store 30-40% of terrestrial carbon, much in climate-vulnerable permafrost soils, making their management critical for climate mitigation. However, optimizing forest management for both carbon sequestration and permafrost preservation presents complex trade-offs that current tools cannot adequately address. We introduce BoreaRL, the first multi-objective reinforcement learning environment for climate-adaptive boreal forest management, featuring a physically-grounded simulator of coupled energy, carbon, and water fluxes. BoreaRL supports two training paradigms: site-specific mode for controlled studies and generalist mode for learning robust policies under environmental stochasticity. Through evaluation of multi-objective RL algorithms, we reveal a fundamental asymmetry in learning difficulty: carbon objectives are significantly easier to optimize than thaw (permafrost preservation) objectives, with thaw-focused policies showing minimal learning progress across both paradigms. In generalist settings, standard gradient-descent based preference-conditioned approaches fail, while a naive site selection approach achieves superior performance by strategically selecting training episodes. Analysis of learned strategies reveals distinct management philosophies, where carbon-focused policies favor aggressive high-density coniferous stands, while effective multi-objective policies balance species composition and density to protect permafrost while maintaining carbon gains. Our results demonstrate that robust climate-adaptive forest management remains challenging for current MORL methods, establishing BoreaRL as a valuable benchmark for developing more effective approaches. We open-source BoreaRL to accelerate research in multi-objective RL for climate applications. more
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Discovering strategies for coastal resilience with AI-based prediction and optimization¶
Tropical storms cause extensive property damage and loss of life, making them one of the most destructive types of natural hazards. The development of predictive models that identify interventions...Tropical storms cause extensive property damage and loss of life, making them one of the most destructive types of natural hazards. The development of predictive models that identify interventions effective at mitigating storm impacts has considerable potential to reduce these adverse outcomes. In this study, we use an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approach for optimizing intervention schemes that improve resilience to coastal flooding. We combine three different AI models to optimize the selection of intervention types, sites, and scales in order to minimize the expected cost of flooding damage in a given region, including the cost of installing and maintaining interventions. Our approach combines data-driven generation of storm surge fields, surrogate modeling of intervention impacts, and the solving of a continuous-armed bandit problem. We applied this methodology to optimize the selection of sea wall and oyster reef interventions near Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, an area that was catastrophically impacted by Hurricane Michael. Our analysis predicts that intervention optimization could be used to potentially save billions of dollars in storm damage, far outpacing greedy or non-optimal solutions. more
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Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperatures Strongly Mischaracterise Urban Heat Hazard¶
Escalating urban heat, driven by the convergence of global warming and rapid urbanization, is a profound threat to billions of city dwellers. The science directing urban heat adaptation is strongly...Escalating urban heat, driven by the convergence of global warming and rapid urbanization, is a profound threat to billions of city dwellers. The science directing urban heat adaptation is strongly influenced by studies that use satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), which is readily available globally and address data gaps in cities, particularly in the Global South. LST, however, is a poor surrogate for near-surface air temperature, physiologically relevant human thermal comfort, or direct human heat exposure. This flawed practice leads to issues for several downstream use cases by inflating adaptation benefits, distorting the magnitude and variability of urban heat signals across scales, and thus misguiding urban adaptation policy. We argue that satellite-based LST must be treated as a distinct indicator of surface climate, which, though relevant to the urban surface energy budget, can be frequently decoupled from human-relevant thermal impacts especially during daytime. Only by a disciplined application of this variable, combined with complementary datasets, process-based and data-driven models, as well as interdisciplinary collaboration, can urban adaptation design and policy be effectively advanced. more
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Spatio-temporal DeepKriging in PyTorch: A Supplementary Application to Precipitation Data for Interpolation and Probabilistic Forecasting¶
A detailed analysis of precipitation data over Europe is presented, with a focus on interpolation and forecasting applications. A Spatio-temporal DeepKriging (STDK) framework has been implemented...A detailed analysis of precipitation data over Europe is presented, with a focus on interpolation and forecasting applications. A Spatio-temporal DeepKriging (STDK) framework has been implemented using the PyTorch platform to achieve these objectives. The proposed model is capable of handling spatio-temporal irregularities while generating high-resolution interpolations and multi-step forecasts. Reproducible code modules have been developed as standalone PyTorch implementations for the interpolation\footnote[2]{Interpolation - https://github.com/pratiknag/Spatio-temporalDeepKriging-Pytorch.git} and forecasting\footnote[3]{Forecasting - https://github.com/pratiknag/pytorch-convlstm.git}, facilitating broader application to similar climate datasets. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through extensive evaluation on daily precipitation measurements, highlighting predictive performance and robustness. more
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Wavelet-SARIMA-Transformer: A Hybrid Model for Rainfall Forecasting¶
This study develops and evaluates a novel hybridWavelet SARIMA Transformer, WST framework to forecast using monthly rainfall across five meteorological subdivisions of Northeast India over the 1971...This study develops and evaluates a novel hybridWavelet SARIMA Transformer, WST framework to forecast using monthly rainfall across five meteorological subdivisions of Northeast India over the 1971 to 2023 period. The approach employs the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, MODWT with four wavelet families such as, Haar, Daubechies, Symlet, Coiflet etc. to achieve shift invariant, multiresolution decomposition of the rainfall series. Linear and seasonal components are modeled using Seasonal ARIMA, SARIMA, while nonlinear components are modeled by a Transformer network, and forecasts are reconstructed via inverse MODWT. Comprehensive validation using an 80 is to 20 train test split and multiple performance indices such as, RMSE, MAE, SMAPE, Willmotts d, Skill Score, Percent Bias, Explained Variance, and Legates McCabes E1 demonstrates the superiority of the Haar-based hybrid model, WHST. Across all subdivisions, WHST consistently achieved lower forecast errors, stronger agreement with observed rainfall, and unbiased predictions compared with stand alone SARIMA, stand-alone Transformer, and two-stage wavelet hybrids. Residual adequacy was confirmed through the Ljung Box test, while Taylor diagrams provided an integrated assessment of correlation, variance fidelity, and RMSE, further reinforcing the robustness of the proposed approach. The results highlight the effectiveness of integrating multiresolution signal decomposition with complementary linear and deep learning models for hydroclimatic forecasting. Beyond rainfall, the proposed WST framework offers a scalable methodology for forecasting complex environmental time series, with direct implications for flood risk management, water resources planning, and climate adaptation strategies in data-sparse and climate-sensitive regions. more
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A Hybrid Analytical Framework for Asymmetric Pressure and Boundary Layer Wind Simulation in Nor'easters¶
Nor'easters frequently impact the North American East Coast, bringing hazardous precipitation, winds, and coastal flooding. Accurate simulation of their pressure and wind fields is essential for...Nor'easters frequently impact the North American East Coast, bringing hazardous precipitation, winds, and coastal flooding. Accurate simulation of their pressure and wind fields is essential for forecasting, risk assessment, and infrastructure planning, yet remains challenging due to their complex, asymmetric structure. This study introduces a novel hybrid analytical-data-driven model designed to efficiently simulate Nor'easter pressure and boundary layer wind fields. The pressure field is modeled using an adapted Holland-type formulation, with azimuthally varying parameters estimated through Kriging surrogate models informed by sensitivity analysis of reanalysis data. The wind field is then derived analytically from the momentum equations by decomposing the wind flow into gradient and frictional components. Model performance is assessed against ERA-Interim reanalysis data and surface wind observations from a historical event. Results show that the proposed pressure model accurately reproduces elliptical isobars and key asymmetrical patterns, while the wind model captures the fundamental structure and intensity of the boundary layer flow, including the presence of supergradient winds. Owing to its physical basis, computational efficiency, and ability to represent critical storm asymmetries, the model offers a valuable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulations for hazard assessment and scenario analysis of extreme Nor'easters. more
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AquaCast: Urban Water Dynamics Forecasting with Precipitation-Informed Multi-Input Transformer¶
This work addresses the challenge of forecasting urban water dynamics by developing a multi-input, multi-output deep learning model that incorporates both endogenous variables (e.g., water height or...This work addresses the challenge of forecasting urban water dynamics by developing a multi-input, multi-output deep learning model that incorporates both endogenous variables (e.g., water height or discharge) and exogenous factors (e.g., precipitation history and forecast reports). Unlike conventional forecasting, the proposed model, AquaCast, captures both inter-variable and temporal dependencies across all inputs, while focusing forecast solely on endogenous variables. Exogenous inputs are fused via an embedding layer, eliminating the need to forecast them and enabling the model to attend to their short-term influences more effectively. We evaluate our approach on the LausanneCity dataset, which includes measurements from four urban drainage sensors, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance when using only endogenous variables. Performance also improves with the inclusion of exogenous variables and forecast reports. To assess generalization and scalability, we additionally test the model on three large-scale synthesized datasets, generated from MeteoSwiss records, the Lorenz Attractors model, and the Random Fields model, each representing a different level of temporal complexity across 100 nodes. The results confirm that our model consistently outperforms existing baselines and maintains a robust and accurate forecast across both real and synthetic datasets. more
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Understanding Ice Crystal Habit Diversity with Self-Supervised Learning¶
Ice-containing clouds strongly impact climate, but they are hard to model due to ice crystal habit (i.e., shape) diversity. We use self-supervised learning (SSL) to learn latent representations of...Ice-containing clouds strongly impact climate, but they are hard to model due to ice crystal habit (i.e., shape) diversity. We use self-supervised learning (SSL) to learn latent representations of crystals from ice crystal imagery. By pre-training a vision transformer with many cloud particle images, we learn robust representations of crystal morphology, which can be used for various science-driven tasks. Our key contributions include (1) validating that our SSL approach can be used to learn meaningful representations, and (2) presenting a relevant application where we quantify ice crystal diversity with these latent representations. Our results demonstrate the power of SSL-driven representations to improve the characterization of ice crystals and subsequently constrain their role in Earth's climate system. more
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Harnessing IoT and Generative AI for Weather-Adaptive Learning in Climate Resilience Education¶
This paper introduces the Future Atmospheric Conditions Training System (FACTS), a novel platform that advances climate resilience education through place-based, adaptive learning experiences. FACTS...This paper introduces the Future Atmospheric Conditions Training System (FACTS), a novel platform that advances climate resilience education through place-based, adaptive learning experiences. FACTS combines real-time atmospheric data collected by IoT sensors with curated resources from a Knowledge Base to dynamically generate localized learning challenges. Learner responses are analyzed by a Generative AI powered server, which delivers personalized feedback and adaptive support. Results from a user evaluation indicate that participants found the system both easy to use and effective for building knowledge related to climate resilience. These findings suggest that integrating IoT and Generative AI into atmospherically adaptive learning technologies holds significant promise for enhancing educational engagement and fostering climate awareness. more