Downscaling¶
-
Physics Encoded Spatial and Temporal Generative Adversarial Network for Tropical Cyclone Image Super-resolution¶
High-resolution satellite imagery is indispensable for tracking the genesis, intensification, and trajectory of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, existing deep learning-based super-resolution (SR)...High-resolution satellite imagery is indispensable for tracking the genesis, intensification, and trajectory of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, existing deep learning-based super-resolution (SR) methods often treat satellite image sequences as generic videos, neglecting the underlying atmospheric physical laws governing cloud motion. To address this, we propose a Physics Encoded Spatial and Temporal Generative Adversarial Network (PESTGAN) for TC image super-resolution. Specifically, we design a disentangled generator architecture incorporating a PhyCell module, which approximates the vorticity equation via constrained convolutions and encodes the resulting approximate physical dynamics as implicit latent representations to separate physical dynamics from visual textures. Furthermore, a dual-discriminator framework is introduced, employing a temporal discriminator to enforce motion consistency alongside spatial realism. Experiments on the Digital Typhoon dataset for 4\(\times\) upscaling demonstrate that PESTGAN establishes a better performance in structural fidelity and perceptual quality. While maintaining competitive pixel-wise accuracy compared to existing approaches, our method significantly excels in reconstructing meteorologically plausible cloud structures with superior physical fidelity. more
-
MAUNet-Light: A Concise MAUNet Architecture for Bias Correction and Downscaling of Precipitation Estimates¶
Satellite-derived data products and climate model simulations of geophysical variables like precipitation, often exhibit systematic biases compared to in-situ measurements. Bias correction and...Satellite-derived data products and climate model simulations of geophysical variables like precipitation, often exhibit systematic biases compared to in-situ measurements. Bias correction and spatial downscaling are fundamental components to develop operational weather forecast systems, as they seek to improve the consistency between coarse-resolution climate model simulations or satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations. In recent years, deep learning-based models have been increasingly replaced traditional statistical methods to generate high-resolution, bias free projections of climate variables. For example, Max-Average U-Net (MAUNet) architecture has been demonstrated for its ability to downscale precipitation estimates. The versatility and adaptability of these neural models make them highly effective across a range of applications, though this often come at the cost of high computational and memory requirements. The aim of this research is to develop light-weight neural network architectures for both bias correction and downscaling of precipitation, for which the teacher-student based learning paradigm is explored. This research demonstrates the adaptability of MAUNet to the task of bias correction, and further introduces a compact, lightweight neural network architecture termed MAUNet-Light.The proposed MAUNet-Light model is developed by transferring knowledge from the trained MAUNet, and it is designed to perform both downscaling and bias correction with reduced computational requirements without any significant loss in accuracy compared to state-of-the-art. more
-
Universal Diffusion-Based Probabilistic Downscaling¶
We introduce a universal diffusion-based downscaling framework that lifts deterministic low-resolution weather forecasts into probabilistic high-resolution predictions without any model-specific...We introduce a universal diffusion-based downscaling framework that lifts deterministic low-resolution weather forecasts into probabilistic high-resolution predictions without any model-specific fine-tuning. A single conditional diffusion model is trained on paired coarse-resolution inputs (~25 km resolution) and high-resolution regional reanalysis targets (~5 km resolution), and is applied in a fully zero-shot manner to deterministic forecasts from heterogeneous upstream weather models. Focusing on near-surface variables, we evaluate probabilistic forecasts against independent in situ station observations over lead times up to 90 h. Across a diverse set of AI-based and numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, the ensemble mean of the downscaled forecasts consistently improves upon each model's own raw deterministic forecast, and substantially larger gains are observed in probabilistic skill as measured by CRPS. These results demonstrate that diffusion-based downscaling provides a scalable, model-agnostic probabilistic interface for enhancing spatial resolution and uncertainty representation in operational weather forecasting pipelines. more
-
WIND: Weather Inverse Diffusion for Zero-Shot Atmospheric Modeling¶
Deep learning has revolutionized weather forecasting, but many challenges remain, including climate modeling. Moreover, the current landscape remains fragmented: highly specialized models are...Deep learning has revolutionized weather forecasting, but many challenges remain, including climate modeling. Moreover, the current landscape remains fragmented: highly specialized models are typically trained individually for distinct tasks. To unify this landscape, we introduce WIND, a single pre-trained foundation model capable of replacing specialized baselines across a vast array of tasks. Crucially, in contrast to previous atmospheric foundation models, we achieve this without any task-specific fine-tuning. To learn a robust, task-agnostic prior of the atmosphere, we pre-train WIND with a self-supervised video reconstruction objective, utilizing an unconditional video diffusion model to iteratively reconstruct atmospheric dynamics from a noisy state. At inference, we frame diverse domain-specific problems strictly as inverse problems and solve them via posterior sampling. This unified approach allows us to tackle highly relevant weather and climate problems, including probabilistic forecasting, spatial and temporal downscaling, reconstruction of spatial fields from sparse observations and enforcing global dry air mass conservation. We further demonstrate how WIND can be applied to explore extreme weather events under prescribed out-of-distribution thermodynamic perturbations. By combining generative video modeling with inverse problem solving, WIND offers a computationally efficient alternative for AI-based atmospheric modeling. more
-
Downscaling land surface temperature data using edge detection and block-diagonal Gaussian process regression¶
Accurate and high-resolution estimation of land surface temperature (LST) is crucial in estimating evapotranspiration, a measure of plant water use and a central quantity in agricultural...Accurate and high-resolution estimation of land surface temperature (LST) is crucial in estimating evapotranspiration, a measure of plant water use and a central quantity in agricultural applications. In this work, we develop a novel statistical method for downscaling LST data obtained from NASA's ECOSTRESS mission, using high-resolution data from the Landsat 8 mission as a proxy for modeling agricultural field structure. Using the Landsat data, we identify the boundaries of agricultural fields through edge detection techniques, allowing us to capture the inherent block structure present in the spatial domain. We propose a block-diagonal Gaussian process (BDGP) model that captures the spatial structure of the agricultural fields, leverages independence of LST across fields for computational tractability, and accounts for the change of support present in ECOSTRESS observations. We use the resulting BDGP model to perform Gaussian process regression and obtain high-resolution estimates of LST from ECOSTRESS data, along with uncertainty quantification. Our results demonstrate the practicality of the proposed method in producing reliable high-resolution LST estimates, with potential applications in agriculture, urban planning, and climate studies. more
-
HybridOM: Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Global Ocean Modeling with Efficient Spatial Downscaling¶
Global ocean modeling is vital for climate science but struggles to balance computational efficiency with accuracy. Traditional numerical solvers are accurate but computationally expensive, while...Global ocean modeling is vital for climate science but struggles to balance computational efficiency with accuracy. Traditional numerical solvers are accurate but computationally expensive, while pure deep learning approaches, though fast, often lack physical consistency and long-term stability. To address this, we introduce HybridOM, a framework integrating a lightweight, differentiable numerical solver as a skeleton to enforce physical laws, with a neural network as the flesh to correct subgrid-scale dynamics. To enable efficient high-resolution modeling, we further introduce a physics-informed regional downscaling mechanism based on flux gating. This design achieves the inference efficiency of AI-based methods while preserving the accuracy and robustness of physical models. Extensive experiments on the GLORYS12V1 and OceanBench dataset validate HybridOM's performance in two distinct regimes: long-term subseasonal-to-seasonal simulation and short-term operational forecasting coupled with the FuXi-2.0 weather model. Results demonstrate that HybridOM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while strictly maintaining physical consistency, offering a robust solution for next-generation ocean digital twins. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ChiyodaMomo01/HybridOM. more
-
Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling via Diffusion Posterior Sampling¶
Conventional supervised climate downscaling struggles to generalize to Global Climate Models (GCMs) due to the lack of paired training data and inherent domain gaps relative to reanalysis. Meanwhile,...Conventional supervised climate downscaling struggles to generalize to Global Climate Models (GCMs) due to the lack of paired training data and inherent domain gaps relative to reanalysis. Meanwhile, current zero-shot methods suffer from physical inconsistencies and vanishing gradient issues under large scaling factors. We propose Zero-Shot Statistical Downscaling (ZSSD), a zero-shot framework that performs statistical downscaling without paired data during training. ZSSD leverages a Physics-Consistent Climate Prior learned from reanalysis data, conditioned on geophysical boundaries and temporal information to enforce physical validity. Furthermore, to enable robust inference across varying GCMs, we introduce Unified Coordinate Guidance. This strategy addresses the vanishing gradient problem in vanilla DPS and ensures consistency with large-scale fields. Results show that ZSSD significantly outperforms existing zero-shot baselines in 99th percentile errors and successfully reconstructs complex weather events, such as tropical cyclones, across heterogeneous GCMs. more
-
An intercomparison of generative machine learning methods for downscaling precipitation at fine spatial scales¶
Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale...Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While stochastic generative models show promise for predicting fine-scale weather and extremes, few studies have compared their performance under present-day and future climates. This study compares a previously developed conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) with an intensity constraint against different configurations of diffusion models for downscaling daily precipitation from a regional climate model (RCM) over Aotearoa New Zealand. Model skill is comprehensively assessed across spatial structure, distributional metrics, means, extremes, and their respective climate change signals. Both generative approaches outperform the deterministic baseline across most metrics and exhibit similar overall skill. Diffusion models better predict the fine-scale spatial structure of precipitation and the length of dry spells, but underestimate climate change signals for extreme precipitation compared to the ground truth RCMs. In contrast, cGANs achieve comparable skill for most metrics while better predicting the overall precipitation distribution and climate change responses for extremes at a fraction of the computational cost. These results demonstrate that while diffusion models can readily generate predictions with greater visual "realism", they do not necessarily better preserve climate change responses compared to cGANs with intensity constraints. At present, incorporating constraints into diffusion models remains challenging compared to cGANs, but may represent an opportunity to further improve skill for predicting climate change responses. more
-
Time-aware UNet and super-resolution deep residual networks for spatial downscaling¶
Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are often available only at coarse spatial resolution, limiting their applicability in local-scale environmental analysis and decision-making. Spatial...Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are often available only at coarse spatial resolution, limiting their applicability in local-scale environmental analysis and decision-making. Spatial downscaling methods aim to transform the coarse satellite data into high-resolution fields. In this work, two widely used deep learning architectures, the super-resolution deep residual network (SRDRN) and the encoder-decoder-based UNet, are considered for spatial downscaling of tropospheric ozone. Both methods are extended with a lightweight temporal module, which encodes observation time using either sinusoidal or radial basis function (RBF) encoding, and fuses the temporal features with the spatial representations in the networks. The proposed time-aware extensions are evaluated against their baseline counterparts in a case study on ozone downscaling over Italy. The results suggest that, while only slightly increasing computational complexity, the temporal modules significantly improve downscaling performance and convergence speed. more
-
MeltwaterBench: Deep learning for spatiotemporal downscaling of surface meltwater¶
The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an accelerated rate due to processes that are not fully understood and hard to measure. The distribution of surface meltwater can help understand these processes...The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an accelerated rate due to processes that are not fully understood and hard to measure. The distribution of surface meltwater can help understand these processes and is observable through remote sensing, but current maps of meltwater face a trade-off: They are either high-resolution in time or space, but not both. We develop a deep learning model that creates gridded surface meltwater maps at daily 100m resolution by fusing data streams from remote sensing observations and physics-based models. In particular, we spatiotemporally downscale regional climate model (RCM) outputs using synthetic aperture radar (SAR), passive microwave (PMW), and a digital elevation model (DEM) over the Helheim Glacier in Eastern Greenland from 2017-2023. Using SAR-derived meltwater as "ground truth", we show that a deep learning-based method that fuses all data streams is over 10 percentage points more accurate over our study area than existing non deep learning-based approaches that only rely on a regional climate model (83% vs. 95% Acc.) or passive microwave observations (72% vs. 95% Acc.). Alternatively, creating a gridded product through a running window calculation with SAR data underestimates extreme melt events, but also achieves notable accuracy (90%) and does not rely on deep learning. We evaluate standard deep learning methods (UNet and DeepLabv3+), and publish our spatiotemporally aligned dataset as a benchmark, MeltwaterBench, for intercomparisons with more complex data-driven downscaling methods. The code and data are available at \(\href{https://github.com/blutjens/hrmelt}{github.com/blutjens/hrmelt}\). more
-
Bridging CORDEX and CMIP6: Machine Learning Downscaling for Wind and Solar Energy Droughts in Central Europe¶
Reliable regional climate information is essential for assessing the impacts of climate change and for planning in sectors such as renewable energy; yet, producing high-resolution projections through...Reliable regional climate information is essential for assessing the impacts of climate change and for planning in sectors such as renewable energy; yet, producing high-resolution projections through coordinated initiatives like CORDEX that run multiple physical regional climate models is both computationally demanding and difficult to organize. Machine learning emulators that learn the mapping between global and regional climate fields offer a promising way to address these limitations. Here we introduce the application of such an emulator: trained on CMIP5 and CORDEX simulations, it reproduces regional climate model data with sufficient accuracy. When applied to CMIP6 simulations not seen during training, it also produces realistic results, indicating stable performance. Using CORDEX data, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, as well as regional data generated by two machine learning models, we analyze the co-occurrence of low wind speed and low solar radiation and find indications that the number of such energy drought days is likely to decrease in the future. Our results highlight that downscaling with machine learning emulators provides an efficient complement to efforts such as CORDEX, supplying the higher-resolution information required for impact assessments. more
-
China Regional 3km Downscaling Based on Residual Corrective Diffusion Model¶
A fundamental challenge in numerical weather prediction is to efficiently produce high-resolution forecasts. A common solution is applying downscaling methods, which include dynamical downscaling and...A fundamental challenge in numerical weather prediction is to efficiently produce high-resolution forecasts. A common solution is applying downscaling methods, which include dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling, to the outputs of global models. This work focuses on statistical downscaling, which establishes statistical relationships between low-resolution and high-resolution historical data using statistical models. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for this task, giving rise to various high-performance super-resolution models, which can be directly applied for downscaling, such as diffusion models and Generative Adversarial Networks. This work relies on a diffusion-based downscaling framework named CorrDiff. In contrast to the original work of CorrDiff, the region considered in this work is nearly 40 times larger, and we not only consider surface variables as in the original work, but also encounter high-level variables (six pressure levels) as target downscaling variables. In addition, a global residual connection is added to improve accuracy. In order to generate the 3km forecasts for the China region, we apply our trained models to the 25km global grid forecasts of CMA-GFS, an operational global model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and SFF, a data-driven deep learning-based weather model developed from Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO). CMA-MESO, a high-resolution regional model, is chosen as the baseline model. The experimental results demonstrate that the forecasts downscaled by our method generally outperform the direct forecasts of CMA-MESO in terms of MAE for the target variables. Our forecasts of radar composite reflectivity show that CorrDiff, as a generative model, can generate fine-scale details that lead to more realistic predictions compared to the corresponding deterministic regression models. more
-
Spatiotemporal Satellite Image Downscaling with Transfer Encoders and Autoregressive Generative Models¶
We present a transfer-learning generative downscaling framework to reconstruct fine resolution satellite images from coarse scale inputs. Our approach combines a lightweight U-Net transfer encoder...We present a transfer-learning generative downscaling framework to reconstruct fine resolution satellite images from coarse scale inputs. Our approach combines a lightweight U-Net transfer encoder with a diffusion-based generative model. The simpler U-Net is first pretrained on a long time series of coarse resolution data to learn spatiotemporal representations; its encoder is then frozen and transferred to a larger downscaling model as physically meaningful latent features. Our application uses NASA's MERRA-2 reanalysis as the low resolution source domain (50 km) and the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) as the high resolution target (7 km). Our study area included a large area in Asia, which was made computationally tractable by splitting into two subregions and four seasons. We conducted domain similarity analysis using Wasserstein distances confirmed minimal distributional shift between MERRA-2 and G5NR, validating the safety of parameter frozen transfer. Across seasonal regional splits, our model achieved excellent performance (R2 = 0.65 to 0.94), outperforming comparison models including deterministic U-Nets, variational autoencoders, and prior transfer learning baselines. Out of data evaluations using semivariograms, ACF/PACF, and lag-based RMSE/R2 demonstrated that the predicted downscaled images preserved physically consistent spatial variability and temporal autocorrelation, enabling stable autoregressive reconstruction beyond the G5NR record. These results show that transfer enhanced diffusion models provide a robust and physically coherent solution for downscaling a long time series of coarse resolution images with limited training periods. This advancement has significant implications for improving environmental exposure assessment and long term environmental monitoring. more
-
On Global Applicability and Location Transferability of Generative Deep Learning Models for Precipitation Downscaling¶
Deep learning offers promising capabilities for the statistical downscaling of climate and weather forecasts, with generative approaches showing particular success in capturing fine-scale...Deep learning offers promising capabilities for the statistical downscaling of climate and weather forecasts, with generative approaches showing particular success in capturing fine-scale precipitation patterns. However, most existing models are region-specific, and their ability to generalize to unseen geographic areas remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluate the generalization performance of generative downscaling models across diverse regions. Using a global framework, we employ ERA5 reanalysis data as predictors and IMERG precipitation estimates at \(0.1^\circ\) resolution as targets. A hierarchical location-based data split enables a systematic assessment of model performance across 15 regions around the world. more
-
Super-resolution of satellite-derived SST data via Generative Adversarial Networks¶
In this work, we address the super-resolution problem of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) using deep generative models. Although standard gap-filling techniques are effective in...In this work, we address the super-resolution problem of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) using deep generative models. Although standard gap-filling techniques are effective in producing spatially complete datasets, they inherently smooth out fine-scale features that may be critical for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics. We investigate the use of deep learning models as Autoencoders (AEs) and generative models as Conditional-Generative Adversarial Networks (C-GANs), to reconstruct small-scale structures lost during interpolation. Our supervised -- model free -- training is based on SST observations of the Mediterranean Sea, with a focus on learning the conditional distribution of high-resolution fields given their low-resolution counterparts. We apply a tiling and merging strategy to deal with limited observational coverage and to ensure spatial continuity. Quantitative evaluations based on mean squared error metrics, spectral analysis, and gradient statistics show that while the AE reduces reconstruction error, it fails to recover high-frequency variability. In contrast, the C-GAN effectively restores the statistical properties of the true SST field at the cost of increasing the pointwise discrepancy with the ground truth observation. Our results highlight the potential of deep generative models to enhance the physical and statistical realism of gap-filled satellite data in oceanographic applications. more
-
A multiresolution weather dataset for the Southwestern South Atlantic (2017-2018)¶
The Southwestern South Atlantic (SWSA) is a key region for climate research and renewable energy assessment, yet high-resolution meteorological data are scarce. We present a multiresolution dataset...The Southwestern South Atlantic (SWSA) is a key region for climate research and renewable energy assessment, yet high-resolution meteorological data are scarce. We present a multiresolution dataset spanning February 2017--November 2018, combining Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations with Sentinel-1A/B Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) wind fields processed using the CMOD5 model. WRF outputs were generated every 30 minutes for three nested domains (9 km, 3 km, 1 km) through 975 short-term simulations. SAR/CMOD5 wind fields are provided at 500 m and 1 km resolution across 104 acquisition dates. Validation shows strong agreement: daily spatial averages of 10 m wind speed yield RMSE and MAE below 3 m/s on over 93% of acquisition days, while more than 91.5% of pixel-level residuals fall within \(\pm\)3 m/s. In situ measurements from the Itajaí buoy further confirmed the reliability of both sources. The dataset supports regional climate studies, wind energy resource assessment, and machine-learning applications in forecasting and downscaling, with usage examples included to aid practical adoption. more
-
Climate Downscaling of Tropical Cyclone Intensity using Deep Learning¶
Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances...Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a natural question is whether DL can provide an alternative approach for improving TC intensity estimation from climate data. Using a common DL architecture based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) and selecting a set of key environmental features, we show that both TC intensity and structure can be effectively downscaled from climate reanalysis data as compared to common vortex detection methods, even when applied to coarse-resolution (0.5-degree) data. Our results thus highlight that TC intensity and structure are governed not only by its internal dynamics but also by local environments during TC development, for which DL models can learn and capture beyond the potential intensity framework. The performance of our DL model depends on several factors such as data sampling strategy, season, or the stage of TC development, with root-mean-square errors ranging from 3-9 ms\(^{-1}\) for maximum 10 m wind and 10-20 hPa for minimum central pressure. Although these errors are better than direct vortex detection methods, their wide ranges also suggest that 0.5-degree resolution climate data may contain limited TC information for DL models to learn from, regardless of model optimizations or architectures. Possible improvements and challenges in addressing the lack of fine-scale TC information in coarse resolution climate reanalysis datasets will be discussed. more
-
A PDE-Informed Latent Diffusion Model for 2-m Temperature Downscaling¶
This work presents a physics-conditioned latent diffusion model tailored for dynamical downscaling of atmospheric data, with a focus on reconstructing high-resolution 2-m temperature fields. Building...This work presents a physics-conditioned latent diffusion model tailored for dynamical downscaling of atmospheric data, with a focus on reconstructing high-resolution 2-m temperature fields. Building upon a pre-existing diffusion architecture and employing a residual formulation against a reference UNet, we integrate a partial differential equation (PDE) loss term into the model's training objective. The PDE loss is computed in the full resolution (pixel) space by decoding the latent representation and is designed to enforce physical consistency through a finite-difference approximation of an effective advection-diffusion balance. Empirical observations indicate that conventional diffusion training already yields low PDE residuals, and we investigate how fine-tuning with this additional loss further regularizes the model and enhances the physical plausibility of the generated fields. The entirety of our codebase is available on Github, for future reference and development. more
-
Sparse Local Implicit Image Function for sub-km Weather Downscaling¶
We introduce SpLIIF to generate implicit neural representations and enable arbitrary downscaling of weather variables. We train a model from sparse weather stations and topography over Japan and...We introduce SpLIIF to generate implicit neural representations and enable arbitrary downscaling of weather variables. We train a model from sparse weather stations and topography over Japan and evaluate in- and out-of-distribution accuracy predicting temperature and wind, comparing it to both an interpolation baseline and CorrDiff. We find the model to be up to 50% better than both CorrDiff and the baseline at downscaling temperature, and around 10-20% better for wind. more
-
Assessing the Geographic Generalization and Physical Consistency of Generative Models for Climate Downscaling¶
Kilometer-scale weather data is crucial for real-world applications but remains computationally intensive to produce using traditional weather simulations. An emerging solution is to use deep...Kilometer-scale weather data is crucial for real-world applications but remains computationally intensive to produce using traditional weather simulations. An emerging solution is to use deep learning models, which offer a faster alternative for climate downscaling. However, their reliability is still in question, as they are often evaluated using standard machine learning metrics rather than insights from atmospheric and weather physics. This paper benchmarks recent state-of-the-art deep learning models and introduces physics-inspired diagnostics to evaluate their performance and reliability, with a particular focus on geographic generalization and physical consistency. Our experiments show that, despite the seemingly strong performance of models such as CorrDiff, when trained on a limited set of European geographies (e.g., central Europe), they struggle to generalize to other regions such as Iberia, Morocco in the south, or Scandinavia in the north. They also fail to accurately capture second-order variables such as divergence and vorticity derived from predicted velocity fields. These deficiencies appear even in in-distribution geographies, indicating challenges in producing physically consistent predictions. We propose a simple initial solution: introducing a power spectral density loss function that empirically improves geographic generalization by encouraging the reconstruction of small-scale physical structures. The code for reproducing the experimental results can be found at https://github.com/CarloSaccardi/PSD-Downscaling more
-
Probabilistic Super-Resolution for Urban Micrometeorology via a Schrödinger Bridge¶
This study employs a neural network that represents the solution to a Schrödinger bridge problem to perform super-resolution of 2-m temperature in an urban area. Schrödinger bridges generally...This study employs a neural network that represents the solution to a Schrödinger bridge problem to perform super-resolution of 2-m temperature in an urban area. Schrödinger bridges generally describe transformations between two data distributions based on diffusion processes. We use a specific Schrödinger-bridge model (SM) that directly transforms low-resolution data into high-resolution data, unlike denoising diffusion probabilistic models (simply, diffusion models; DMs) that generate high-resolution data from Gaussian noise. Low-resolution and high-resolution data were obtained from separate numerical simulations with a physics-based model under common initial and boundary conditions. Compared with a DM, the SM attains comparable accuracy at one-fifth the computational cost, requiring 50 neural-network evaluations per datum for the DM and only 10 for the SM. Furthermore, high-resolution samples generated by the SM exhibit larger variance, implying superior uncertainty quantification relative to the DM. Owing to the reduced computational cost of the SM, our results suggest the feasibility of real-time ensemble micrometeorological prediction using SM-based super-resolution. more
-
Deep Learning Reconstruction of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific from Climate Reanalysis Dataset¶
This study presents a deep learning (DL) architecture based on residual convolutional neural networks (ResNet) to reconstruct the climatology of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) in the Western North...This study presents a deep learning (DL) architecture based on residual convolutional neural networks (ResNet) to reconstruct the climatology of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin from climate reanalysis datasets. Using different TCG data labeling strategies and data enrichment windows for the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2) dataset during the 1980-2020 period, we demonstrate that ResNet can reasonably reproduce the overall TCG climatology in the WNP, capturing both its seasonality and spatial distribution. Our sensitivity analyses and optimizations show that this TCG reconstruction depends on both the type of TCG climatology that one wishes to reconstruct and the strategies used to label TCG data. Of interest, analyses of different input features reveal that DL-based reconstruction of TCG climatology needs only a subset of channels rather than all available data, which is consistent with previous modeling and observational studies of TCG. These results not only enhance our understanding of the TCG process but also provide a promising pathway for predicting or downscaling TCG climatology based on large-scale environments from global model forecasts or climate output. Overall, our study demonstrates that DL can offer an effective approach for studying TC climatology beyond the traditional physical-based simulations and vortex-tracking algorithms used in current climate model analyses. more
-
Diffusion-Based, Data-Assimilation-Enabled Super-Resolution of Hub-height Winds¶
High-quality observations of hub-height winds are valuable but sparse in space and time. Simulations are widely available on regular grids but are generally biased and too coarse to inform wind-farm...High-quality observations of hub-height winds are valuable but sparse in space and time. Simulations are widely available on regular grids but are generally biased and too coarse to inform wind-farm siting or to assess extreme-weather-related risks (e.g., gusts) at infrastructure scales. To fully utilize both data types for generating high-quality, high-resolution hub-height wind speeds (tens to ~100m above ground), this study introduces WindSR, a diffusion model with data assimilation for super-resolution downscaling of hub-height winds. WindSR integrates sparse observational data with simulation fields during downscaling using state-of-the-art diffusion models. A dynamic-radius blending method is introduced to merge observations with simulations, providing conditioning for the diffusion process. Terrain information is incorporated during both training and inference to account for its role as a key driver of winds. Evaluated against convolutional-neural-network and generative-adversarial-network baselines, WindSR outperforms them in both downscaling efficiency and accuracy. Our data assimilation reduces WindSR's model bias by approximately 20% relative to independent observations. more
-
EnScale: Temporally-consistent multivariate generative downscaling via proper scoring rules¶
The practical use of future climate projections from global circulation models (GCMs) is often limited by their coarse spatial resolution, requiring downscaling to generate high-resolution data....The practical use of future climate projections from global circulation models (GCMs) is often limited by their coarse spatial resolution, requiring downscaling to generate high-resolution data. Regional climate models (RCMs) provide this refinement, but are computationally expensive. To address this issue, machine learning models can learn the downscaling function, mapping coarse GCM outputs to high-resolution fields. Among these, generative approaches aim to capture the full conditional distribution of RCM data given coarse-scale GCM data, which is characterized by large variability and thus challenging to model accurately. We introduce EnScale, a generative machine learning framework that emulates the full GCM-to-RCM map by training on multiple pairs of GCM and corresponding RCM data. It first adjusts large-scale mismatches between GCM and coarsened RCM data, followed by a super-resolution step to generate high-resolution fields. Both steps employ generative models optimized with the energy score, a proper scoring rule. Compared to state-of-the-art ML downscaling approaches, our setup reduces computational cost by about one order of magnitude. EnScale jointly emulates multiple variables -- temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind -- spatially consistent over an area in Central Europe. In addition, we propose a variant EnScale-t that enables temporally consistent downscaling. We establish a comprehensive evaluation framework across various categories including calibration, spatial structure, extremes, and multivariate dependencies. Comparison with diverse benchmarks demonstrates EnScale's strong performance and computational efficiency. EnScale offers a promising approach for accurate and temporally consistent RCM emulation. more
-
CERA: A Framework for Improved Generalization of Machine Learning Models to Changed Climates¶
Robust generalization under climate change remains a major challenge for machine learning applications in climate science. Most existing approaches struggle to extrapolate beyond the climate they...Robust generalization under climate change remains a major challenge for machine learning applications in climate science. Most existing approaches struggle to extrapolate beyond the climate they were trained on, leading to a strong dependence on training data from model simulations of warm climates. Use of climate-invariant inputs improves generalization but requires challenging manual feature engineering. Here, we present CERA (Climate-invariant Encoding through Representation Alignment), a machine learning framework consisting of an autoencoder with explicit latent-space alignment, followed by a predictor for downstream process estimation. We test CERA on the problem of parameterizing moist-physics processes. Without training on labeled data from a +4K climate, CERA leverages labeled control-climate data and unlabeled warmer-climate inputs to improve generalization to the warmer climate, outperforming both raw-input and physically informed baselines in predicting key moisture and energy tendencies. It captures not only the vertical and meridional structures of the moisture tendencies, but also shifts in the intensity distribution of precipitation including extremes. Ablation experiments show that latent alignment improves both accuracy and the robustness across random seeds used in training. While some reduced skill remains in the boundary layer, the framework offers a data-driven alternative to manual feature engineering of climate invariant inputs. Beyond parameterizations used in hybrid ML-physics systems, the approach holds promise for other climate applications such as statistical downscaling. more
-
Physics-constrained generative machine learning-based high-resolution downscaling of Greenland's surface mass balance and surface temperature¶
Accurate, high-resolution projections of the Greenland ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) and surface temperature are essential for understanding future sea-level rise, yet current approaches are...Accurate, high-resolution projections of the Greenland ice sheet's surface mass balance (SMB) and surface temperature are essential for understanding future sea-level rise, yet current approaches are either computationally demanding or limited to coarse spatial scales. Here, we introduce a novel physics-constrained generative modeling framework based on a consistency model (CM) to downscale low-resolution SMB and surface temperature fields by a factor of up to 32 (from 160 km to 5 km grid spacing) in a few sampling steps. The CM is trained on monthly outputs of the regional climate model MARv3.12 and conditioned on ice-sheet topography and insolation. By enforcing a hard conservation constraint during inference, we ensure approximate preservation of SMB and temperature sums on the coarse spatial scale as well as robust generalization to extreme climate states without retraining. On the test set, our constrained CM achieves a continued ranked probability score of 6.31 mmWE for the SMB and 0.1 K for the surface temperature, outperforming interpolation-based downscaling. Together with spatial power-spectral analysis, we demonstrate that the CM faithfully reproduces variability across spatial scales. We further apply bias-corrected outputs of the NorESM2 Earth System Model as inputs to our CM, to demonstrate the potential of our model to directly downscale ESM fields. Our approach delivers realistic, high-resolution climate forcing for ice-sheet simulations with fast inference and can be readily integrated into Earth-system and ice-sheet model workflows to improve projections of the future contribution to sea-level rise from Greenland and potentially other ice sheets and glaciers too. more
-
Multiscale Neural PDE Surrogates for Prediction and Downscaling: Application to Ocean Currents¶
Accurate modeling of physical systems governed by partial differential equations is a central challenge in scientific computing. In oceanography, high-resolution current data are critical for coastal...Accurate modeling of physical systems governed by partial differential equations is a central challenge in scientific computing. In oceanography, high-resolution current data are critical for coastal management, environmental monitoring, and maritime safety. However, available satellite products, such as Copernicus data for sea water velocity at ~0.08 degrees spatial resolution and global ocean models, often lack the spatial granularity required for detailed local analyses. In this work, we (a) introduce a supervised deep learning framework based on neural operators for solving PDEs and providing arbitrary resolution solutions, and (b) propose downscaling models with an application to Copernicus ocean current data. Additionally, our method can model surrogate PDEs and predict solutions at arbitrary resolution, regardless of the input resolution. We evaluated our model on real-world Copernicus ocean current data and synthetic Navier-Stokes simulation datasets. more
-
Wasserstein GAN-Based Precipitation Downscaling with Optimal Transport for Enhancing Perceptual Realism¶
High-resolution (HR) precipitation prediction is essential for reducing damage from stationary and localized heavy rainfall; however, HR precipitation forecasts using process-driven numerical weather...High-resolution (HR) precipitation prediction is essential for reducing damage from stationary and localized heavy rainfall; however, HR precipitation forecasts using process-driven numerical weather prediction models remains challenging. This study proposes using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) to perform precipitation downscaling with an optimal transport cost. In contrast to a conventional neural network trained with mean squared error, the WGAN generated visually realistic precipitation fields with fine-scale structures even though the WGAN exhibited slightly lower performance on conventional evaluation metrics. The learned critic of WGAN correlated well with human perceptual realism. Case-based analysis revealed that large discrepancies in critic scores can help identify both unrealistic WGAN outputs and potential artifacts in the reference data. These findings suggest that the WGAN framework not only improves perceptual realism in precipitation downscaling but also offers a new perspective for evaluating and quality-controlling precipitation datasets. more
-
Downscaling with AI reveals the large role of internal variability in fine-scale projections of climate extremes¶
The computational cost of dynamical downscaling limits ensemble sizes in regional downscaling efforts. We present a newly developed generative-AI approach to greatly expand the scope of such...The computational cost of dynamical downscaling limits ensemble sizes in regional downscaling efforts. We present a newly developed generative-AI approach to greatly expand the scope of such downscaling, enabling fine-scale future changes to be characterised including rare extremes that cannot be addressed by traditional approaches. We test this approach for New Zealand, where strong regional effects are anticipated. At fine scales, the forced (predictable) component of precipitation and temperature extremes for future periods (2080--2099) is spatially smoother than changes in individual simulations, and locally smaller. Future changes in rarer (10-year and 20-year) precipitation extremes are more severe and have larger internal variability spread than annual extremes. Internal variability spread is larger at fine scales that at the coarser scales simulated in climate models. Unpredictability from internal variability dominates model uncertainty and, for precipitation, its variance increases with warming, exceeding the variance across emission scenarios by fourfold for annual and tenfold for decadal extremes. These results indicate that fine-scale changes in future precipitation are less predictable than widely assumed and require much larger ensembles to assess reliably than changes at coarser scales. more
-
RainShift: A Benchmark for Precipitation Downscaling Across Geographies¶
Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not...Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based super-resolution models offer a promising solution to downscale ESM outputs to higher resolutions by learning from data. Yet, due to regional variations in climatic processes, these models typically require retraining for each geographical area-demanding high-resolution observational data, which is unevenly available across the globe. This highlights the need to assess how well these models generalize across geographic regions. To address this, we introduce RainShift, a dataset and benchmark for evaluating downscaling under geographic distribution shifts. We evaluate state-of-the-art downscaling approaches including GANs and diffusion models in generalizing across data gaps between the Global North and Global South. Our findings reveal substantial performance drops in out-of-distribution regions, depending on model and geographic area. While expanding the training domain generally improves generalization, it is insufficient to overcome shifts between geographically distinct regions. We show that addressing these shifts through, for example, data alignment can improve spatial generalization. Our work advances the global applicability of downscaling methods and represents a step toward reducing inequities in access to high-resolution climate information. more